If you looked into solar a few years ago and decided to wait, you probably remember the pitch: a 30% federal tax credit was doing a lot of the heavy lifting. That credit — the one homeowners could claim directly — ended in December 2025.
So the obvious question: did solar just stop making sense?
Short answer: no. But the way it makes sense has changed, and it's worth ten minutes to understand how.
The part nobody's advertising: solar got cheaper
While the tax credit was expiring, something quieter was happening on the other side of the ledger. Solar equipment prices fell hard. Panel prices dropped more than 20% over the past year, and fully installed residential systems are running about 7% less than they were a year ago, according to the industry's quarterly market data from SEIA. A big piece of that was the repeal of import tariffs that had been adding 20–50% to equipment costs.
Put plainly: a meaningful chunk of what the tax credit used to cover, falling prices now cover on their own.
Meanwhile, your electric bill is going the other way
The average U.S. residential electricity rate is projected to hit about 18 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2026, up from a little over 17 cents last year — and that's the national average. In the Pacific states it's closer to 25 cents, and in New England it's about 30. Utilities are spending heavily on grid upgrades, storm hardening, and meeting demand from data centers, and those costs land on rate payers. Federal energy forecasters expect the climb to continue.
Solar's core bargain hasn't changed: you're swapping a rate that rises every year for one you lock the day your system turns on.
The new math, honestly
Here's the fair way to think about 2026:
If you're paying cash or financing with a loan, you no longer get the federal credit, but you're buying at the lowest equipment prices in years. Payback periods are longer than they were in 2024 — and still finite, against a utility rate that only moves one direction.
If you go with a solar lease or power purchase agreement (PPA) — where a solar company owns the system on your roof and you just buy the power — the federal credit didn't actually disappear. Businesses that own solar systems still qualify for a federal credit, and the major providers locked in their eligibility for years to come. That's why the $0-down option frequently beats the loan option on monthly cost right now, which is the opposite of how it used to be.
That flip is the single most important thing to understand about solar in 2026, and it's the thing a bad sales pitch will skate past.
What we'd tell a family member
Get quotes for both ownership and a lease/PPA and compare the monthly numbers side by side. Ask what rate the lease escalates at (under 3% is the number to look for — your utility is likely rising faster). And don't let anyone rush you with an expiring-incentive countdown; the deadline drama ended in December. What's left is just math, and the math still works for most homes with decent sun and a real electric bill.
GRID doesn't sell solar to homeowners — GRIDcard connects homeowners with verified local solar pros who show their math.